Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.