Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."